[Satellite TODAY 04-22-13] Media Partners Asia (MPA) projects there will be close to 700 million pay-TV subscribers in Asia by 2020, up from 444 million in 2012. This is one of the key findings of the company's new research report "Asia Pacific Pay-TV & Broadband."

According to MPA, the number of pay-TV subscribers in 2012 meant net additions of just more than 30 million that year. Excluding China, which can somewhat skew the figures, the number of new subscribers in 2012 was little more than 13 million.

Besides MPA's expectation of 696 million pay-TV subscribers in the region by 2020, revenue forecasts for Asia are also particularly impressive. According to MPA, the pay-TV industry – which generated around $48.8 billion in revenues in 2012 – will reach more than $86 billion in 2020.

"DTH satellite services will continue to prosper, anchored to the demand for well-packaged, aggressively marketed pay-TV content at affordable prices with superior customer service," said Vivek Couto, executive director, MPA. "This will certainly prove to be the key demand driver in markets such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. In these markets, organized, well-capitalized players are driving DTH growth. In Malaysia, DTH demand has already peaked and its future growth is incremental, anchored to HD, DVR growth and premium services, which will drive ARPUs. This is even more the case in Australia and Japan. In Korea, hybrid set-top boxes and the combination of Korea Telecom (KT) and Sky Life, are helping renew DTH.

"The growth of rural DTH satellite services in China at $1 per month will exaggerate DTH¹s share of Asia Pacific pay-TV subs by about 10 percentage points after 2016; excluding China, DTH's market share in Asia Pacific pay-TV is on a steady growth curve, climbing from 24 percent in 2012 to 36 percent by 2020. Our forecasts suggest that total DTH pay homes will grow from about 50 million in 2012 to approximately 209 million by 2020. The largest commercially relevant DTH market will remain India with Southeast Asia climbing up rapidly from a low base, driven by Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam."

With a number of lucrative country markets such as India, China and Indonesia, the region has some of the fastest growing DTH markets anywhere in the world but one of the main issues going forward could be access to satellite capacity.

"Satellite capacity and spectrum usage policy remain key concerns and constraints in India. Measat, SES and Intelsat are focusing increasingly on Southeast Asia in addition to India, with the launch of new satellites providing extra capacity for pay-TV platforms to fuel HDTV well as new advanced services. Such services are likely to become important in emerging markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines in the medium to long-­term future. This will occur as demand for non-linear content grows and the demand for apps, multimedia services and IP functionality starts rising to a significant level, in line with the current high levels of social media adoption in Southeast Asia," Couto added.

MPA has noted a number of key trends in the region. Couto said that, across key markets, a steady growth in population and a young demographic, combined with a rising middle class and the spread of wealth amongst local groups is driving strategic decisions and execution in the pay-TV industry.

"These factors, in turn, will help boost household formation and consumer spends. This will also help grow pay-TV consumption and investment in markets such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Pay-TV investors were adversely impacted in 2012 by the devaluation of local market currencies against the U.S. dollar in markets such as India and Indonesia. Nonetheless, investment activity in 2012 was driven by large-scale IPOs in Malaysia, Indonesia and Korea," he said.

The concept of TV Everywhere (TVE) has also began to see some traction across the region, and operators, particularly DTH powerhouses are starting to move in this direction and use satellite in combination with other technologies. "Astro in Malaysia, for instance, has embraced satellite, IPTV and over-the-top distribution as it looks to monetize its production of 9,000 hours of content every year," said Couto. "Others, such as MNC in Indonesia, have yet to face broadband headwinds, but are seeking to capitalize on content muscle through broadband distribution in addition to DTH. More defensive types of TVE services have evolved in Singapore, Australia and Hong Kong. In Australia, Foxtel appears to be moving to the next stage with a low-cost IPTV solution in what could deliver a much-needed boost to pay-TV subscriber growth in that market."