Investment bankers Morgan Stanley one of the few major names left
standing following this past few day s turmoil has issued its weekly
Trendspotting snap analysis of the world s economic indicators. More
than a few make gloomy reading.
Patrick Wellington (one of their key media analysts) says advertising growth in the Asia-Pacific region will slow markedly in 2009 after a similarly slow year in 2008, citing data from Media Partners Asia; rising by just 5% in 2009 after 7% growth this year, next year will see the lowest ad revenue growth in the region since 2003.
MPA, says the bank, has issued downgrades on a number of markets including China and India, but adds that the pace of growth across much of the region is likely to still be robust . There are risks to the forecasts in both India and Southeast Asia but it is the marked softening of growth in Korea and Japan that remains a key concern, the bank quoted Vivek Couto, director of research and content at MPA.
MPA s forecasts have advertising revenues in emerging Asia , which excludes Australia and Japan, rising by 10% next year, driven by China, India and Indonesia. China will grow by 13% in 2009 against 23% in 2008, with this year buoyed by the Beijing Olympics. Growth in India, which stood at 22% in 2007, is expected to fall to 18% in 2008 and then further, to 13% in 2009.
Fred Bjelland (Retail analyst) talks about Kesa Electricals having reported lower than expected sales on the back of a rapidly falling electricals market. The slowdown has been most notable in white goods, which is the most housing-related electricals purchase, while grey goods and TV sales have held up OK. Given the housing related nature of the problem, sales have fallen most rapidly in the UK where white goods sales are down 12-13% on last year.
In France, the white goods market is down just 1-2% reflecting a less leveraged consumer and more stable market conditions.
Spanish electricals sales are 'the worst I have seen in my entire life" according to Group CEO, which is somewhat worrying seeing he will celebrate 30 years at Darty (the French business) next year.
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