With digitization imminent now, are we set to see an ensuing battle between the cable operators and the DTH providers? With the proposed sunset date for analog cable distribution being finalized, it is expected that the large MSOs' efforts and resource deployment toward digitization will gain traction. The digital addressable distribution system in India, which at present is being spearheaded by the seven DTH players, would see a far greater participation from the cable MSOs who are expected to have relatively better revenue and profit growth opportunities.

Media Partners Asia (MPA) predicts that cable will dominate the Indian pay-TV market with a 70-percent market share through 2014, despite a brisk growth in the DTH space. Digital cable will also see steady gains, increasing to 17 million by 2014 and 29 million by 2020. Cable Broadband, a key driver of future profits, will grow from 850,000 homes in 2009 to 3 million by 2014.

Trends indicate that cable television in Europe has over 30 million subscribers, but DTH is no idle threat with 17 million. Germany leads the region in both cable and DTH subscription with 28 million subscribers in both. The UK has more DTH households than cable with a penetration rate of 15.9 percent versus 11.8 percent.

Cable operators in India, till now the poor cousins to DTH, once the mandatory directive of digitization is given shall become aggressive. They like their counterparts in other parts of the world shall bring in set-top boxes with digital output, interactive services and next generation ramp-up like Digital Video Recorders (DVRs), Video on Demand (VoD), and Pay per View (PPV) services. An advance digital technology is capable of competing with high-quality DTH with equivalent competent compression technology and local area services.

Issues such as huge funding requirement, an emerging MSO-LCO digitization partnership, and ability to protect themselves from the onslaught of alternate technology platforms will undoubtedly have to be addressed by the cable operators.

The recent recommendations made by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India to increase the FDI limit to 74 percent will provide incentives for the MSOs. It shall also see more international players enter the DTH market - following what has been a successful litmus test by way of News Corporation's stake in the Tata Sky platform. That it may pave the way for consolidation is another story.

That said, considering the existence of a large market, significantly under-penetrated digital universe and the growing trend of multiple television homes, experts believe that multiple technology platforms could co-exist profitably (provided competitive pressures subside and ARPUs increase).

Cricket World Cup

In the meantime, the DTH industry is very excited with the world of cricket. Having seen substantial growth during the festive months from Onam to Diwali, they are high on the additions to the subscriber base and some upgrades with the existing subscribers that the 43-day ICC Cricket World Cup is bringing with it.

ESPN Star Sports (ESS), the broadcast rights holder for the Cricket World Cup 2011 is broadcasting all 49 matches live in HD. However, given that the HD base is still small, operators are focussing on increasing their HD base rather than charging high access fees for the HD signals and meeting their costs.

ESS currently has a reach of 15 percent across India's 116 million cable and satellite homes, according to TAM - rising to 23.3 percent in the top six metros: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, and Hyderabad. The reach of Doordarshan to the nation's 142 million TV homes is far greater. However it is showing just ten of the ICC Cricket World Cup's 49 matches- including those in which India plays, as well as the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final - and this will not sate the appetites of fans who can afford to pay for more action.

Most cable networks in India already carry ESS channels, although not much revenue growth can be expected for cable operators during the Cricket World Cup, due to price capping and the fixed nature of the analog cable bouquet.

It seems to be a different scenario for DTH operators who are merrily building tempting sports packages to attract new subscribers, in order to gain the all-important market share. So far Tata Sky, Airtel Digital, and Dish TV have reportedly negotiated the feed from ESS to show all the live matches, while the remaining three private players continue to establish carriage deals.

Salil Kapoor, Chief Operating Officer of Dish TV said HD set-top boxes will see a double growth in the cricket season. "The World Cup, followed by IPL IV, can be as big as the Diwali season for us in terms of sales."

Sugato Banerji, CMO, Bharti Airtel too has worked out promotional deals to woo customers. "Festive occasions, sporting events have been an inflection point for the DTH industry and with a packed sports calendar culminating with the 2011 World Cup, the momentum continues."

Videocon d2h has launched its high-definition digital video recorder (DVR). Saurubh Dhoot, Director, Videocon said, "we are using the World Cup fervor to the fullest to promote our product. We are offering a la carte services to our customers, which enables them to choose and enjoy viewing as per their choice. They can select from the slew of offerings. This empowers the customer to package his own channels that he prefers to watch." Videocon d2h claims to have the maximum number of channels and services with a strong regional content for their specific audiences along with all the sports channels on board.

Overnight rating agency aMap revealed the Cricket World Cup viewership pattern on DTH platform through its exclusive DTH measurement panel aMapDTH. The agency had released a detailed study comparing the viewership patterns on DTH and analog platforms.

According to the findings of the analysis, easier availability and better quality of viewing lures DTH audiences on to the World Cup. Aggressive marketing efforts by DTH providers coupled with the strength of the DTH platform enables easier access for viewers. In the run-up to the ICC World Cup 2011, the study found that reach for the World Cup channels has been improving more on DTH than analog.

Comparing the reach of World Cup matches across DTH and analog platforms, the study finds that the reach for India matches are slightly higher on DTH vis-a-vis analog, whereas reach for non-India matches are 26 percent higher. Access increases consumption of cricket on DTH, with viewers not only watching India but Non India matches as well.