HONG KONG/SINGAPORE: China will overtake Japan as the Asia Pacific's largest ad market in 2016, Media Partners Asia (MPA) projects in its latest report, which estimates that net advertising revenues in the region will rise 5 percent this year to top $121 billion.
The report, Asia Pacific Advertising Trends & Database 2014, tracks net ad revenues, measured after discounts, in 14 markets. After this year's 5-percent growth rate, MPA estimates ad revenues will rise 5.7 percent in 2015. For the five-year period from 2014 to 2019, MPA projects an average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent.
Vivek Couto, MPA's executive director, commented, "The macro landscape is uneven and there are head winds to economic growth across Asia Pacific. Encouragingly, governments and policymakers across the region have implemented reforms to address structural issues and this trend is likely to accelerate in markets where positive political change has occurred. Ad spends from large multinational advertisers softened through much of 2014, partially offset by spends from domestic advertisers, but this has dampened growth across Southeast Asia and other key markets. Multinational advertising demand may return but weakness across global emerging and developed ad markets may exert downward pressure on Asia."
In Southeast Asia, growth will be much slower, at just 1.2 percent this year, with reductions in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand being partially offset by modest gains in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. By 2015, however, growth should pick up to 7.2 percent. By 2019, the region's sixth-largest ad markets will be China—overtaking Japan in the top spot in 2016—Japan, Australia, India (which will top Korea in 2017), Korea and Indonesia.
The forecast for TV is mixed, with the medium's ad share having peaked in 2011 at 42.9 percent. This year, MPA expects TV's share to be 41.6 percent, falling to 40.7 percent in 2019. Hong Kong and Australia are expected to continue to see gains in TV adspend, MPA says, as will the developing markets of Indonesia, India, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. In the mature markets of Japan and Singapore, TV will have a harder time maintaining its dominance. Korean terrestrial TV will also have a tougher time garnering ad dollars.
The forecast for digital, meanwhile, is bright, with an 11.1-percent compound annual growth rate from 2014 to 2019 and share rising from 23 percent this year to 31 percent in 2019. Digital has overtaken TV to be the top ad medium in Australia, MPA says. In five years' time it will be the leading platform in China, Korea and New Zealand. In India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, digital will have a share of between 10 and 20 percent in 2019, up from 6 to 8 percent this year. Mobile advertising will become increasingly significant in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. The online video ad base will also expand in those markets and increase rapidly in places like India as the multiplatform landscape develops.
